November Boxing Preview: My Thoughts
November 5
At Las Vegas (Top Rank PPV):
Jessie Vargas vs. Manny Pacquiao, 12 rounds, for Vargas' WBO welterweight title
This fight should be very entertaining given the boxing style of both men. HBO has always broadcast the great Pacquiao is HBO's primary pay per view generator but with Ward vs Kovalev being aired on HBO later this month, it was seen as a conflict airing both fights.
Bob Arum unwilling to budge on the dates was not going to be denied his business opportunity. He elected to move forward without HBO’s involvement. It likely means they sell less pay per views but Top Rank also won't have to give HBO a big cut so financially, it might be a wash.
With respect to who wins this fight, Vargas has a strong chin, and a puncher's chance to pull an upset. People tend to forget Vargas stays in tremendous shape and is in his first high profile fight since his lone loss to Timothy Bradley over a year ago (June 2015). That was a noncompetitive decision win for Bradley, who managed to survive a 12th round scare where Vargas almost knocked him out. Bradley survived and scored the win.
If the Pacquioa sticks to the game plan -- moves around the ring and does not get easily countered -- it should be an easy win against a tough rising Mexican American fighter. A loss is not career ending for Vargas, but a win could propel him to the next level. A poor showing from Vargas likely will solidify him as a sold “B” plus fighter but certainly not championship caliber. Vargas was denied a rematch with Bradley, and a win could allow him to dictate who he fights going forward. If the fight goes as planned and Pacman defeats Vargas, it likely setups a rematch between Pacquiao vs Floyd Mayweather II. The business side of boxing is too big for this fight not to happen, even if most fight fans could care less. The only other option for Pacquioa going forward is Terrance Crawford, another Top Rank fighter who is trying to establish himself as a pay per view commodity. Crawford's failed premier on pay per view could be fixed by beating Manny Pacquioa sometime in 2017. First, the Filipino star has to handle business on Nov 5th 2016.
Oscar Valdez vs. Hiroshige Osawa, 12 rounds, for Valdez's WBO featherweight title
Valdez is another rising star represented by Bob Arum and Top Rank Promotions. They have been very careful advancing his career to date. At age 25, Valdes is facing a solid but not dangerous opponent in Hiorshige Osawa (30-3-4). Osawa has mostly faced Japanese fighters and so his matchup with Valdez is presumably a major step up in skill . Valdez needs to be careful with as his opponent is on an eight fight winning streak, all by knock out. If Valdez can score the win I look for him to step up his competition in search of a high profile fight next year. He's on the cusp of being ready to face the likes of Jo Jo Diaz, Abner Mares, or Jesus Cuellar. If he can get past these top fighters he might be ready to face the cream of the crop: Leo Santa Cruz, Gary Russell Jr, Selby and Carl Frampton, etc.
Nonito Donaire vs. Jessie Magdaleno, 12 rounds, WBO junior featherweight title
Don’t call it a comeback just yet. Nonito Donaire has taken on some tough opponents and has fought better in his last few fights. Magdaleno will be Nonito’s latest challenge, a big test for the Filipino star to reestablish himself as a contender. Magdeleno is a tough Mexican fighter with 17 knockouts in 23 wins. If he can get past Magdeleno, HBO might be willing to feature him on their network again. I wonder if there could be a potential matchup between Choclatito and Nonito at a catch weight. I think it is a high profile fight for both men who are also HBO friendly fighters. With loss to Magdaleno, Nonito might never be a main attraction and be stuck as a gatekeeper for younger fighter’s ascending in the division. It’s a lot of pressure for Nonito – can he overcome? We’ll find out Nov 5th.
November 12
At Philadelphia (PBC on Spike):
Danny Garcia vs. Samuel Vargas, 10 rounds, welterweights
Garcia returns after a long layoff to face Samuel Vargas (25-2-1), a relatively unknown Columbian fighter who fights out of Canada -- this was yet another disappointing announcement for boxing fans in what has been a very forgettable year.
To the dismay of fight fans, Garcia elected to face an easy opponent as he prepares to square off with Keith Thurman the beginning of next year. His decision could backfire on him. Garcia has not been impressive since going up in weight to 147 lbs. Therefore, I'm not sure how Samuel Vargas makes Garcia a better fighter in what is a very loaded welterweight division. Fans certainly miss watching the old Garcia, who dominated the 140 lb. weight division. That impressive left hook is a forgotten memory these days. Garcia appears unable to knock down welterweights as evident in his fights against Lamont Peterson and Robert Guerrero, two mediocre 147 lbers. At 33-0, Garcia still has a lot of upside but for reasons of his own doing, such as poor opponent selection, 2017 will be a make or break year as he exits the prime of his career turning 29 in early 2017.
Javier Fortuna vs. Omar Douglas, 10 rounds, lightweights
Fortuna returns to the ring for a second time since being knocked out by Jason Sosa (19-1-4). Fans have grown fond of Fortuna’s power punching and knockout style, however, he was unable to hurt Sosa in their meeting. Whenever Fortuna cannot win a fight by overpowering his opponent, he tends to get sloppy— makes it an ugly fight, and even displays dirty tactics with head butts and low blows. Sosa didn’t let it get that far and was dominant in their fight. At 27 years young, Fortuna looks to get back on track and salvage what was a once promising career by getting in the ring for a second time since his loss, against Omar Douglas, a lesser known fighter with a 17-0 record. It should be an interesting fight.
At Monte Carlo (HBO):
Luis Ortiz vs. Malik Scott, 12 rounds, heavyweights
Luis “King Kong” Ortiz (25-0-0) gets back in the ring in a “stay busy” fight versus Malik Scott, a journey veteran who poses no threat to Ortiz. This will be Ortiz' first fight since leaving Golden Boy to join forces with Matchroom Boxing Promotions. It is seen as a tactical move for Ortiz to land the big fight with a plethora of UK and Russian fighters who are dominating the heavyweight division. It will be interesting if Ortiz can land a fight with Deontay Wilder, Bermain Stiverne, or Wvladimir Klitschko within the next year. If so, that spells great news for boxing and fans.
Jason Sosa vs. Stephen Smith, 12 rounds, WBA "regular" junior lightweight title
Having already discussed Jason Sosa earlier, I am definitely looking forward to this fight. Sosa looks to secure a big win over Stephen Smith (24-2-0) to take his career to the next level. Sosa has a more impressive resume and is three years younger, so most experts would say he's the favorite. That said, the 31 year old Stephen Smith is the older brother of Liam Smith who recently lost to Canelo Alvarez on HBO Pay Per View. Sosa should not take this fight lightly. The Smith Brothers are known for fighting with pride as they look to give their fans a good show. It will be a gritty contest if Smith can handle Sosa's big power punches. The fight takes place in Europe -- Monaco, Monte Carlo to be exact. Expect a heavy pro Smith fanbase in attendance. If Sosa can knock out Smith it will be a huge statement to the top dogs in the division having won in a very hostile environment. Sosa's corner should be fully aware that a decision victory might be hard to come by.
Martin Murray vs. TBA, 12 rounds, super middleweights
Martin Murrray may still have some UK following so I expect him to get a few more fans in the stand as this fight is scheduled to take place in Monaco, Monte Carlo. Coming off a loss to George Groves for a super middle weight title, I expect Murray to be matched up with an easy opponent. This fight could be a disaster if Murray loses to an unknown – it would be a third loss in four fights at 34 years of age.
November 18
At Indio, Calif. (Estrella TV):
Mauricio Herrera vs. Pablo Cesar Cano, 10 rounds, welterweights
Mauricio Herrera (22-6-0) looked horrible in his last fight being thoroughly dominated by 24 year old "Pitbull", Frankie Gomez. It was such a lop sided decision victory it begged the question – is Gomez the next big thing at welterweight or was Herrera simply not prepared?
At 36 years of age, Herrera could be showing signs of slowing down. The guy has been in some pretty brutal battles with the likes of Ruslan Provodnikov, Mike Alvarado, Danny Garcia, and now add Frankie “The Pitbull” Gomez to the list. Herrera was thoroughly dominated in his last fight. He seemed slow and unable to throw punches or find a rythym. All that said, I tend to think Herrera’s ring rust also explains his poor performance, having fought a total of four rounds in the ring since December 2014. Look for Herrera to bounce back against tough Pablo Cesar Cano (29-5-1), a Mexican journeyman fighter who has faced a lot of big names in his career. At only 27 years of age, Cano looks to take that step to the next level. Cano’s lost all of his notable fights against the former champions and greats – Paul Malignaggi, Shane Moseley, and Erik Morales. The winner of Herrera vs Cano can put them self into the Lucas Matthysse sweepstakes. All fighters are under the Golden Boy banner and Lucas looks to return on HBO sometime in early 2017.
At London:
George Groves vs. Eduard Gutknecht, 12 rounds, super middleweights
George Groves looks to defend his super middleweight title against Eduard Gutknecht (34-4-1), a tough native born fighter from Kazakhstan. Groves is considered a heavy favorite but if we know anything about Kazakhs, they have a lot of power and bring the action, so it should be an entertaining fight.
At Ekaterinburg, Russia:
Dmitry Mikhaylenko vs. Randall Bailey, 12 rounds, welterweights
Dmitry Mikhaylenko is a solid welterweight fighter from Russia. I recall watching the Russian systematically breakdown a tough Columbian, Johan Perez, in a very entertaining fight a few years ago (2015). Mikhaylenko followed that win up with an impressive performance over Karim Mayfield winning the vacant WBC Welterweight belt. Unfortunately for Mikhalyenkno, he ran into a wall in his next fight losing the belt in his first defense against Charles Manyuchi by unanimous decision. Manyuchi is a skilled 26 year old who could be holding the that belt for a while. Mikhaylenko looks to get back against Randall Bailey in what should be a quality fight as the Russian is very technical and packs some power.
November 19
At Las Vegas (HBO PPV):
Sergey Kovalev vs. Andre Ward, WBO/IBF/WBA light heavyweight title
Now to the major event fight fans have been waiting for.
Andre Ward vs Surgey Kovalev has a the upside to be an all-time-great boxing match up. It’s a classic stylistic war between pure puncher vs. boxer. Kovalev has long been salivating at the thought of facing a fighter like Ward to cement his legacy as an all time great. Meanwhile, Ward has been thought of as a top pound for pound fighter only behind the likes of Floyd Mayweather ever since he cleaned out a stacked 168 division by 2012. This all took place before the sudden rise of GGG at the 160 lb division. Fans largely forgot about Ward's greatness after promotional issues and legalities forced him to take an extended break from boxing. This fight can change all that.
Many experts have Ward favored to defeat Kovalev and I tend to agree. Ward seems to have more power at his age then did Bernard Hopkins who faced Kovalev at 49 years of age. Kovalev staggered BHop a few times but was unable to knock him out. Ward on the other hand has solid power, and seems much more equipped to slip Kovalev's punches and counter. That said, if Kovalev manages to cut off the ring and lands clean punches, there is no fighter at 172 lbs who can sustain that type of punishment. The big question is whether Ward has lost a step in recent fights because of ring rust or because he's moved up in weight? Is Ward just a fraction slower and thus can be hit/hurt. These unknowns are exactly why this fight will be such a treat for fans. It will come down to who executes better in a classic showdown between power and skill. I can't wait.
If Ward manages to win he will have a ton of big fight options in 2017. So will Kovalev, but I don't see a lot of the top guys rushing to fight the Russian "Krusher". Ward is also promoted by Rocnation Sports who is friendly and on good terms with most big networks and managing/promotional entities. A big fight against Cesar Chavez Jr., Joseph Smith, Bernard Hopkins, Adonis Stevensen can all be made much easier for Ward than the HBO Friendly Kovalev. For this reason, the winner of Ward vs Kovalev could have big implications on boxing in 2017. Stay tuned!
Isaac Chilemba vs. Oleksandr Gvozdyk, 10 rounds, light heavyweights
Chilemba made it through 12 rounds with “The Krusher” Kovalev so he has that going for him. Gvozdyk is a rising star fighting out of Oxnard, CA by way of Ukraine. He’s a light heavy weight who’s won 9 of his 11 fights by way of knockout. This is a good measuring stick fight for the 29 year old prospect and potential opponent for Kovalev or Ward in the future. This match up doesn’t make you want to buy the Ward/Kovalev ppv if you were on the fence about it. In fact, I think RocNation and Main Events could’ve landed a better under card to sell but they are banking on the main event doing all the up-sell, so I see both sides of the coin.
Curtis Stevens vs. James De La Rosa, 10 rounds, middleweights
Curtis Stevens (28-5) looks to keep his momentum going as he is coming off an impressive KO win over rising prospect, Patrick Texeria. His opponent, James De La Rosa (23-4), is a solid journeyman who has struggled moving up to the middleweight division. DLR has lost four of his last seven fights and his biggest win to date is Alfredo Angulo. Stevens should have no problem knocking this guy out but they will both exchange, so it should be a perfect opener to Ward vs Kovalev on HBO pay per view. Stevens is notorious for getting into twitter wars and has enticed the likes of BJ Saunders, David Lemieux and Gab Rosado. He would love a chance at Canelo Alvarez although he would be an unlikely opponent for the Mexican star posing a lot of risk and not much reward. Still, this fight should be a good scrap while it lasts and I suggest turning in.
November 26
At Las Vegas (HBO):
Vasyl Lomachenko vs. Nicholas Walters, 12 rounds, WBO junior lightweight title
Another great fight of the year potential, Lomachenko vs Walters was long overdue. Both fighters have been rumored to square up since they were the fighters to beat at 126 pounds. Now that they moved up to 130 pounds, this match up should be even more entertaining. Can Walters be the first to really disrupt Lomachenko's busy and precision punching abilities. Lomachenko will go in as a betting odds favorite but Walters is probably one of the best fighters he will have faced next to Salido. It's going to be a close fight but I suspect Lomachenko is too much for Walters who looked mediocre against Sosa earlier this year. I am taking Lomachenko on a late stoppage or decision victory.
Billy Joe Saunders vs. Artur Akavov, 12 rounds, WBO middleweight title
Saunders returns to the ring against another unknown, albeit, undefeated UK middle weight fighter. BJS loves to entice big names into twitter wars, only to proceed facing the lesser known fighters like Artur Akovav. BJS two signature wins have come by way of a narrow decision win over Eurbanks Jr. for the British Middle Weight (BBC) Belt. He followed that win up by defeating Andy Lee with great movement and well placed power shots, taking Lee’s WBO middle weight belt. BJS quickly found out becoming a champ is much easier than remaining the champ as he avoided a first title defense against the likes of GGG, Curtis Stevens, Peter Quillen, David Lemieux, Brandon Jacobs, etc. Even if we’re nice and allow BJS a softball title defense, he will face immediate pressure to live up to the big talk he does on Twitter and face one of the aforementioned opponents in the 160 lb weight class. Otherwise, he runs the risk of being known as a paper champ unwilling to fight outside of the UK.
