Checking in on GGG / Canelo
It's been a while since my last article.
Sort of tired of the same old news in boxing. The big fights that fans want rarely get made. Media outlets want to blame whoever, without any substantial evidence making them no better than fans on social media who cry all day long.
October was a painfully slow month for boxing. September was a little better, as both Canelo vs Liam Smith, and GGG vs Kel Brook carried the month. Both star fighters took care of business and kept the potential mega fight on track for 2017.
GGG vs Kel Brook:
Kel Brook may not have won the fight but he wins the award for balls of steel in 2016.
The guy was only a top five welterweight before agreeing to jump two full weight classes to take on the boogeyman of the middle weight division. The results were what most fight fans and experts expected. GGG actually broke Brook's orbital bone in fifth round knockout win. Eye injuries are always career threatening for fighters -- just ask Antonio Margarito and Israel Vasquez about that.
Kel Brook looked overwhelmed by GGG's power in the first round. He appeared hurt after the 2nd round, which is presumably the round Brook's eye socket was broken. However, Brook was able to bounce back and even made the 2nd round a close on on the scorecards. Perhaps he was carried by patriotism or he just got used to the GGG power shots, Brook managed to win a few rounds and exposed GGG with 3-4-5 punch combinations. It was the first time I've seen GGG take punishment that seemed to anger him as the fight wore on. Eventually, Brook's corner threw in the towel as their fighter was just not too small and not used to taking punches from guys as strong as GGG. Brook was given a standing ovation for having a warrior spirit. He may have a solid run in the 154 lb division, assuming his eye heals up, but it's clear he's not a 160 middle weight fighter. Wishing Brook a fast recovery because he's clearly an asset to the sport of boxing.
My two cents on the fight is really simple. I never understood why Brook's corner and management agreed to jump up two full weight classes. A fight with Jessie Vargas would've been way more competitive. At least they could've asked GGG to agree to a catchweight of 156 or 157. It would have made for a much better fight. It's clear GGG has no intention of moving up or down in weight in the forseeable future, not even for a record pay day with Canelo which probably could've been made sooner rather than later had GGG agreed to a catchweight. None the less now GGG's Promoters are trying to leverage their fighter's popularity into way more than the $10-$12 million Golden Boy Promotions offered him to face Canelo at 160 lbs. It begs the question: is GGG looking more and more like a businessman or like the champion everyone has grown to support? Time will tell.
Canelo Alvarez v. Liam Smith
Canelo's fight took place one week after the free GGG vs Kel Brook fight on HBO Pay Per View. It was Canelo's first fight at 154 lbs since he carved his own 155 lb weight division. There was some speculation the 1 lb could be difficult for Canelo to make. This did not appear to be the case. Liam Smith is a 154 lb. champion who hails from England. His lack of popularity in the U.S. contributed to Canelo's lowest pay per view numbers since he became a pay per view star in 2013. Also, many boxing fans discontent with Canelo's role in the delay of making the GGG fight also hurt his sales.
The drop in viewership tells me two things: Canelo, even without a big named opponent, can sell $250,000 to $300,000 pay per views which is not horrible and can still be viewed as profitable from a business standpoint. That's good news for Golden Boy looking to cash in on their cash cow.
The bad news, however, is Canelo's drop in sales is a sign the Mexican fighter needs to face GGG sooner rather than later. A year ago, GGG fought David Lemiex on pay per view which was a flop selling only 100,000 pay per views. A year ago Canelo could have offered GGG $5 million to fight, and the general consensus would have been GGG should take that offer. Fast forward to 2017 and it appears the longer the fight does not get made, the more money GGG is going to ask for and Canelo is expected to make the fight by all means necessary. It's a catch 22 for the Mexican fighter who only gets better each and every time out, and delaying the fight puts him into a better position for victory. On the flipside, a year ago, I do believe GGG beats Canelo in a pretty lopsided affair. At this juncture, I believe it's a 50/50 fight with GGG holding the slight favorite at 160 lbs. Canelo deserves to be the favorite if contracted under 160 lbs for obvious reasons.
Canelo's face off with LIam Smith was for a WBO Super Welterweight Title. Given Smith had a belt, and was considered a "big" 154 lber, I thought this was a perfect match up for Canelo who has not yet moved up to 160 lb division. Additionally, it gives Canelo leverage in future GGG negotiations as his team can say they still are still in the 154 lb division, so GGG can either agree to a catchweight or he can agree to less money if Canelo moves up to 160 lbs. Both tactical moves for Golden Boy and Canelo to use in future contract discussions.
Liam Smith was unable to stay busy enough to really hurt Canelo. He did land a few solid combinations but Canelo took the power punches well. He kept moving forward and counter punching well. It was eventually the body work that did Liam Smith in by the 9th round stopage. It is this style I expect Canelo will utilize to defeat GGG in their eventual showdown.
I came across Richard Shaeffer's most recent article regarding Canelo vs GGG and surprisingly agreed with most of what he said. The media and fight fans tend to perceive Canelo as "scared" but they are severely underestimating the 26 year old world class champion. GGG at 34 does not have the big fight experience and continues to struggle finding quality opponents. He gets a pass facing guys two weight classes below him, but Canelo receives much criticism over the same. This will be a disadvantage for GGG when the two ultimately face off. Canelo's resume and big fight experience is a huge factor that cannot be overlooked.
Check out the full Fightsaga article for details. I believe GGG should take a large flat fee, which can be negotiated to $15 or $20 million but given his poor pay per view track record, which is almost non-existent, he cannot seriously ask for 30, 40 or 50% of sales. It's absurd. If the fight is competitive and GGG were to win, he could negotiate a huge percentage in a rematch. But for now, he remains the "B" side fighter and Canelo has already agreed to move up in weight. Stop stalling it out with the financial aspect so fans can finally see this potentially great fight.
